Posts Tagged ‘peak oil’

Guest blog: Hamilton has it right on oil

Steven Kopits is the Managing Director of Princeton Energy Advisors, LLC.  He is currently writing a book on supply-constrained oil markets analysis.

Once again, we return to the debate over the direction of oil prices, this time led by the high price school.

In a recent article, Professor James Hamilton of the University of California argues that sluggish supply growth, coupled with sustained emerging market demand, will tend to keep oil prices elevated.  He writes, “the world of energy may have changed forever…hundred dollar oil is here to stay.”

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The 40-year cycle of the oil industry, and where we’re at now

Just hang on:  We don’t have much more than nine years to go in the current period of history that is turning the oil world upside down.

Peter Tertzakian, a managing director and chief energy economist of Calgary’s ARC Financial, sees economic upheaval as going through four distinct cycles. There’s a relatively stable period that he calls “growth and dependence.” But various changes occur that result in a “pressure build” that has to give at some point. That’s what he calls the “break point.” The fourth cycle is known as “rebalancing” or “transition” and it is often injected with “magic bullets” that provide a new equilibrium … or in other words, new growth and dependence.

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Guest post: A 10-year oil supply retrospective shows unwarranted optimism

Our guest post today comes from Steve Andrews, who is  a retired energy consultant and contributor to the Peak Oil Review, reachable at We reached out to CERA to determine its interest in providing a response, but did not hear back.

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The exploding supply of NGLs: can this stuff be called oil?

If The Oil Drum were still around, the contributors would certainly be talking about a new ESAI study.

The Boston-based consultancy put out a press release today, touting a new report it has produced that says by 2023, NGL production will account for more than one-quarter of the world’s liquids output.

To which the peak oil believers might say: exactly.

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A place where the peak oil crowd gathered is no more

There used to be a website driven by a completely non-transparent metric that would rank the “importance” of various Twitter feeds similar in their areas of interest. It’s defunct now, and the name of it is forgotten.

It would look not only at the number of followers, but other things like how many followers your Twitter feed’s followers had, how often your Tweets were re-Tweeted, and so on.

The @PlattsOil feed consistently ranked second in the oil category, for whatever that was worth. It was always a harmless time-waster to check and see how we were doing. And how we were doing was that from our #2 perch we were always looking up at the Twitter feed of The Oil Drum, which was the primary website for a dialogue on Peak Oil.

And now The Oil Drum is closing up shop.

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Why a potential role for the US as oil production king needs an asterisk

The peak oil folks have been saying it for years, but now a Wall Street house is sending out a caution flag as well.

One of the arguments long made by followers of peak oil is that organizations such as the International Energy Agency count crude and natural gas liquids equally.So the world market of 89 million b/d of liquids contains mostly energy-intensive versatile hydrocarbons such as crude oil–versatile in the sense that they can be processed to make products that do everything from propelling cars to making carbon black–and a lesser amount of NGLs with a far more limited use.

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A peak oil follower despairs of his movement’s future

When OPEC officials meeting in Vienna are talking about “tremendous” surpluses of oil in the world, and US crude production has risen above 6 million b/d, it’s tough to be a disciple to the peak oil school of the future.

Ask Luis de Sousa. This Portugese member of the the Association for the Study of Peak Oil has just returned from the recent ASPO meeting in Vienna, and he is not optimistic that the movement has a great deal of energy left in it.

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Oil from shale will take US back to the ’70s

Just a couple of years ago, this prediction for US oil production would have sounded preposterous. But Tudor Pickering Holt’s chief energy strategist now thinks the number could grow from the current level of 5.7 million b/d to more than 7 million b/d in the near future.  He actually said it out loud recently in an interview with Platts Oilgram News.

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A cautious take on the good fortune of shale

Fracking exists thanks to decades of technological improvements of old-school drilling practices. But did it also depend on a dose of luck?

Economist James Hamilton argues it probably did. In a paper out this week (PDF), he urges the US to keep that in mind before moving on with shale extraction and consumption like everything has changed.

If the shale boon amounts to hitting the lottery for domestic supply, what if we blow the winnings before finding the next golden ticket?

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Notes from The Oil Council assembly: rebalancing, soaring land prices and candles

A few notes from this year’s Americas Assembly of The Oil Council in New York.

(Unfortunately, no media breakfast this year; the prior two were interesting affairs that you can read about here and here.)

(With contributions from Platts staff members Sheela Tobben and Leslie Moore Mira.)

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