Posts Tagged ‘IEA’

Growing Russia-China links could hurt ESPO crude oil trade

By Richard Swann | April 11, 2013 12:47 PM Comments (1)

This month’s IEA oil market report highlighted some interesting developments in Russian oil production and exports, drawing attention to the possibility that stronger links with China could have a knock-on effect of cutting the amount of crude traded in international spot markets.

Recent agreements between Moscow and Beijing to double the amount of Russian oil being supplied to more than 600,000 b/d are likely to make China Russia’s top crude buyer but raise a number of big logistical challenges, the IEA said in its report.

At the very least, these are likely to prompt a reallocation of Russian crude flows until 2018 and affect spot-based ESPO blend exports via the Pacific coast port Kozmino.

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IEA sees a slow growth in Venezuelan oil capacity even in a post-Chavez world

By Robert Perkins | March 14, 2013 12:01 AM Comments (0)

The International Energy Agency marked the passing of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez by adding its voice to a wealth of editorials pointing to a neglected oil industry which has sapped the country’s output and capacity.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA warns of a “further degradation” of the state oil company PDVSA should Chavez’s policies live on under his hand-picked successor Nicolas Maduro. The IEA also predicted that the country’s net capacity will increase less than 8% over the next five years.

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IEA backtracks on oil demand

By Robert Perkins | February 13, 2013 02:00 PM Comments (0)

What a difference a month makes.

Less than four weeks ago the International Energy Agency warned of a tightening in the global oil market due to higher-than-expected demand data from China and the US.

The West’s energy watchdog hiked its global oil demand estimate for the final quarter of 2012 by a massive 710,000 b/d and flagged a bullish 240,000 b/d upward revision to its 2013 oil demand forecast.

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The IEA’s tighter oil market may be brief

By Robert Perkins | January 18, 2013 03:36 PM Comments (1)

So China again surprised to the demand upside in the IEA’s latest monthly oil market estimate. As a result, it provided, yet again, the impetus for an apparent tightening of the oil markets fundamentals at least in the short-term.

The West’s energy watchdog hiked its global oil demand estimate for the final quarter of 2012 by a massive 710,000 b/d and pushed up its forecast of demand this year by 240,000 b/d to 90.8 million b/d. This comes amid a sharp pullback in Saudi oil production of 600,000 b/d since October (half of which came in December alone) from 30-year highs, underpinning the IEA’s more bullish view.

So with 400,000 b/d more demand for OPEC’s oil in the fourth quarter than previously thought, the call on OPEC’s oil was around 30.8 million b/d in the three months to December, when the cartel was pumping 30.6 million b/d.

That’s a legitimate oil market pinch for sure, but not necessarily a tightening for very long.

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Did the US already overtake Saudi Arabia for petroleum liquids king? Even more asterisks pop up

By John Kingston | December 17, 2012 08:24 AM Comments (1)

A recent declaration by a blogger that the US already has topped Saudi Arabia in total liquids output comes with even more asterisks than we wrote about last week. But it does add yet one more question about how to count barrels, which is probably going to be a major parlor game in coming years.

On a blog entitled Next Big Future, a blogger named Brian Wang looks at some data and reaches the conclusion that for at least now, the US already has become king of the production hill.

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IEA’s signals mixed, but it sees a definite rise in demand

By Robert Perkins | December 13, 2012 01:52 PM Comments (0)

The International Energy Agency provided a characteristically mixed bag of monthly oil market indicators this week, with key themes of an outlook for higher oil demand running parallel to apparent market oversupply.

The report’s headline forecasts of higher than expected oil demand in Q4 and next year were tempered with comments of continued “sluggish” global economic growth.

Next year’s oil demand expectations were raised by 110,000 b/d to 90.5 million b/d. Meanwhile, Q4 demand was hiked by 435,000 b/d more than forecast last month. By way of contrast, the IEA had previously slashed its Q4 oil demand estimate by combined 800,000 b/d since June.

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IEA’s bearish figures paint sharper over-supply picture

By Robert Perkins | November 13, 2012 02:37 PM Comments (0)

For those still puzzled over stubbornly supra-$100/barrel oil prices, the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report Tuesday provided a wealth of fresh bearish data set to further baffle oil market watchers.

The report, which came a day after the IEA’s headline-grabbing annual World Energy Outlook, supports a gloomy outlook for global oil markets with further cuts to its headline demand forecasts due to concern over the health of the global economy.

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We’re a lot less together in the oil world than we used to be, according to the IEA outlook

By Margaret McQuaile | October 12, 2012 01:21 PM Comments (3)

Interdependence has been a consistent theme in the world of oil for many years, the idea that even a small supply disruption in one part of the globe can have an impact thousands of miles away.

Well, say goodbye to that notion, or at least part of it. The International Energy Agency has looked into the not-too-distant future and it sees a world divided between an increasingly self-contained western hemisphere and pretty much everywhere else.

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Mixed IEA oil report gives scant support for SPR talk

By Robert Perkins | September 12, 2012 02:31 PM Comments (0)

The International Energy Agency painted a mixed picture of the current global oil market with its latest monthly report September 12, suggesting an adequate cushion of stocks and supply as geopolitical clouds over Iran’s oil continue to circle.

In a report which made few changes to its closely-watched global oil demand forecasts, the IEA’s estimates for OECD stock levels managed to be both bullish and potentially bearish.

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Has the White House learned anything from the last SPR drawdown?

By Meghan Gordon | September 12, 2012 01:53 PM Comments (0)

The Council on Foreign Relations has a good read out today on what lessons the White House and world leaders should take from last year’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown when they consider tapping emergency oil stockpiles again.

As we keep hearing from oil analysts whenever the Obama administration leaks word of another possible sale, any impact on the market will probably be short-lived.

Blake Clayton, author of the CFR report, shows that Brent crude prices dipped 6% the same day that the US and International Energy Agency announced they would sell 60 million barrels of crude and refined products on June 23, 2011. Prices fell 2% the next day. But eight days later, prices returned to the pre-announcement level.

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