Archive for the ‘oil fundamentals’ Category

EIA analysis: Oil futures jump as US crude stocks fall

US commercial crude oil stocks were 847,000 barrels lower for the week ended December 12, helped along by a drop in imports, according to data released Wednesday from the US Energy Information Administration.

It represented a smaller-than-expected draw, but oil futures jumped regardless on a wave of short covering. Read more in the Platts analysis here.

It’s now Ant and Grasshopper days in the oil industry

During most times, the oil industry may operate in a dog-eat-dog world.  Now it’s also in an ant-and-grasshopper world.

You know the story of those two insects — they’re paired together in Aesop’s Fable of the same name.

The ant toils hard to save and scrimp for a rainy day, while the grasshopper flits around, enjoying the moment with no thought for tomorrow. Then winter comes and the ant has stores of food to last him for months; the grasshopper dies.

It’s hard to think, especially given the lavish times of several months back when Niagaras of oil revenues were pouring into corporate coffers, that any operator would ever be out shivering in the cold, harsh winter of sub-$60/barrel oil prices, but that reality is now here. And those who prepared for it in better times, are holding their heads up.

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Bearish IEA market report tops off bad week for oil exporters

If you’re an oil exporter, the December 12th report on the state of the oil market from the International Energy Agency will have topped off yet another week of very bad news.

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How lower crude oil could impact UK energy plans

The dramatic fall in crude oil prices in the second half of this year runs against the recent assumptions of the UK’s energy policy-makers. A policy of support for new nuclear power generation and offshore wind has been based not only on the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but also on the argument that fossil fuel prices are set to run ever-higher.

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EIA analysis: US crude oil stocks decrease 3.7 million barrels

The biggest crude oil draw was on the US West Coast again this week. Analysts tend to downplay the significance of USWC stockpile movements because the region is mostly disconnected from Cushing, Oklahoma. You can read Platts’ analysis of the Energy Information Administration figures here.

OPEC is playing a dangerous game with oil markets

(The Platts’ OPEC team in Vienna was headed by Margaret McQuaile, and also included Stuart Elliott, Adal Mirza, Jacinta Moran and Herman Wang.)

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi left OPEC’s Vienna meeting on Thursday saying the group had made “a great decision.”

Oil markets didn’t agree. In the weeks leading up to the decision, expectations had built for a cut in output, not least because of the sharp fall in demand for OPEC oil that forecasting organizations–including OPEC itself–were projecting for the first half of next year. But when Naimi signaled early Wednesday that the oil market would eventually stabilize itself, it became clear that the Saudis were not interested in cutting output.

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EIA monthly oil report, and a quick note about oil prices

Two things for a Thanksgiving afternoon: First, taking a look at the monthly Energy Information Administration report — which covers September — here’s what stuck out:

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EIA analysis: Big West Coast oil move skews overall figures

It was one of those weeks that sometimes vexes analyst: a relatively big build in crude oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration, but a lot of it coming on the US West Coast. As our weekly analysis explains here, traders tend to dismiss those figures.

Chinese oil demand growth rate reaches almost 3%

The growth in Chinese oil demand has been significantly less than the growth in the country’s GDP for awhile now. It still is, but October’s growth rate was a bit higher than some recent months. You can read our analysis of it here.

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EIA analysis: Counter-cyclical build in US crude oil inventories

A small expected build in crude oil stocks in the US last week actually turned out to be a fairly large build, given normal trends at this time of the year. You can read Platts’ analysis of the Energy Information Administration figures here.